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Chronicdepression，however，doesnotseemtobelong，asaconsistentfeatureofthecourseofthings，inthisnineteenth-centuryperiod，priortotheeightiesorthemiddleoftheseventies。Theusualcourse，itiscommonlyheld，wasrather:
inflation，crisis，transientdepression，gradualadvancetoinflation，andsoonoveragain。(35*)
Ontheviewofthesephenomenaherespokenfor，anattemptatexplainingthiscircuitmaybemadeasfollows:Acrisis，underthisearlynineteenth-centurysituation，wasanabruptcollapseofcapitalizedvalues，inwhichthecapitalizationwasnotonlybroughttotheleveloftheearning-capacitywhichtheinvestmentswouldhaveshowninquiettimes，butappreciablybelowthatlevel。Theefficiencyandthereachofthemachineindustryintheproductionofproductivegoodswasnotthensogreatastolowerthecostoftheirproductionrapidlyenoughtoovertaketheshrinkageincapitalizationandsopreventthelatterfromrisingagaininresponsetothestimulusofarelativelyhighearning-capacity。Theshock-effectoftheliquidationpassedoffbeforethecheapeningofthemeansofproductionhadtimetocatchupwiththeshrinkageofcapitalizationduetothecrisis，sothataftertheshock-effecthadpassedtherestillremainedanappreciableunder-capitalizationasasequeloftheperiodofliquidation。
Thereforetheredidnotresultapersistentunfavorablediscrepancybetweencapitalizationandearning-capacity，withaconsequentchronicdepression。Ontheotherhand，theearning-capacityofinvestmentswashighrelativelytotheirreducedcapitalizationafterthecrisis。Actualearning-capacityexceededthenominalearning-capacityofindustrialplantsbysoappreciableamarginastoencourageaboldcompetitiveadvanceandasanguinefinancieringonthepartofthevariousbusinessmen，sosoonastheshockoftheliquidationhadpassedandbusinesshadagainfallenintosettledchannels。Butsuchaboldcompetitiveadvancemeansthebeginningofanextensionofcreditandaspeculativemovementinindustry，suchashasbeendiscussedsomepagesbackinconnectionwithcrises。Thismovementhasacumulativecharacter，afterthemannerthereindicated，anditsoutcomeisaninflationofcapitalizationandalargeextensionofcredit，whichnormallyendsinaperiodofliquidation。
Withintheperiodspokenof(1816-1873)thisliquidationisapparentlyalwaysbroughtonbysomeextraneousdisturbance。Butitseemsthatthetheorywouldrequireustosaythattheextraneousdisturbancerequisitetobringsuchaspeculativemovementtoaheadwillbeslighterthefartherthemovementhasgone；sothatintheearlierstagesofagivenperiodofinflationaliquidationcouldbebroughtononlybysomerelativelyviolentdisturbance，whereasatahigherphaseofspeculativeinflationarelativelyslightdisturbancewouldsuffice。
Now，ittakessometimeforsuchaspeculativemovementtobringonsolargeadiscrepancybetweencapitalizationandearning-capacityasmaynotbeadjustedbyothermeansthanawidespreadandsevereliquidation。(36*)Hencearoughperiodicityintherecurrenceoftheseseasonsofbuoyancyandofcollapseincapitalizedvalues。Otherfactors，andvaryingones，have，nodoubt，beenpresentineachofthehistoriccrisesofthenineteenthcentury，andtheseotherfactorswouldhavetobetakendueaccountofinanyhistoryofcrises，andeveninanytheoryofcrises，whichaimedatanythinglikeanexhaustivetreatment；butthefactorsherepointedoutseemtobethecharacteristicandconstantonesinthesequenceofcriseswithinthisperiod，atthesametimethattheyarethefactorswhichareinapeculiardegreeconnectedwiththatprocessofbusinessmanagementinmodernindustrywhichistheobjectivepointofthepresentinquiry。
Sincetheseventies，asanapproximatedateandasapplyingparticularlytoAmericaandinalessdegreetoGreatBritain，thecourseofaffairsinbusinesshasapparentlytakenapermanentchangeasregardscrisesanddepression。Duringthisrecentperiod，andwithincreasingpersistency，chronicdepressionhasbeentheruleratherthantheexceptioninbusiness。Seasonsofeasytimes，“ordinaryprosperity，“duringthisperiodareprettyuniformlytraceabletospecificcausesextraneoustotheprocessofindustrialbusinessproper。Inonecase，theearlynineties，itseemstohavebeenapeculiarcropsituation，andinthemostnotablecaseofaspeculativeinflation，theonenow(1904)apparentlydrawingtoaclose，itwastheSpanish-AmericanWar，coupledwiththeexpendituresforstores，munitions，andservicesincidenttoplacingthecountryonawarfooting，thatliftedthedepressionandbroughtprosper
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