The Theory of Business

第26章

Thecaseisdifferentasregardstheannualoutputofvendibleproducts,whetherforindustrialorconsumptiveuse。Inthiscase,andparticularlyasregardsthismatterofnewInvestmentsandextensionsofIndustrialequipment,theannualoutputcountsforbyfarthegreaterfactorinmakingthecurrentvalueoftheavailablesupply,ifindeeditisnottoberegardedassubstantiallytheonlyfactorthatcomesinquestionhere。

Accordingly,itisonlyunderveryexceptionalcircumstances,attimeswhenthepreciousmetalsaresuppliedwithextraordinaryfreedom,thattheincreasedoutputofthesemetalscanoffsetthetrendofbusinesstowarddepression。Ordinarilythisfactorcancountfornomorethanamitigationofthe“tendencyofprofitstoaminimum。“Andeventhismitigatingeffect,itmayberemarked,appearstobeoflessradicalconsequenceforthegeneralsituationofbusinessnowthanitwasduringtheearlierphasesofthemachineindustry’sregime。Themosttellingeffectofanincreasedsupplyofthepreciousmetalsseemstobetheincitementwhichitgivestospeculativeinflation。(28*)

Itwillbenotedthattheexplanationhereofferedofdepressionmakesitamaladyoftheaffections。Thediscrepancywhichdiscouragesbusinessmenisadiscrepancybetweenthatnominalcapitalizationwhichtheyhavesettheirheartsuponthroughhabituationintheimmediatepastandthatactualcapitalizablevalueoftheirpropertywhichitscurrentearning-capacitywillwarrant。Butwherethepreconceptionsofthebusinessmenengagedhave,ascommonlyhappens,ingreatpartbeenfixedandlegalizedintheformofinterest-bearingsecurities,thismaladyoftheaffectionsbecomesextremelydifficulttoremedy,eventhoughitbetruethattheselegalizedaffections,preconceptions,orwhatnot,centreuponthemetaphysicalstabilityofthemoneyunit。

Butwhileitistruethatdepressionisprimarilyabusinessdifficultyandrestsonemotionalgrounds,thatdoesnothinderitshavinggraveconsequencesforindustryandforthematerialwelfareofthecommunityoutsidetherangeofbusinessinterests。

Businessenterprise,itistrue,proceedsonmetaphysicalgroundsandisswayedbyconsiderationsofnominalwealthratherthanbyconsiderationsofmaterialserviceability;but,nonetheless,businessenterpriseandbusinessmetaphysicscontrolthecourseofindustry。

Dulltimesinbusinessmeansdulltimesinindustry,ofcourse。Butacautionisnecessaryonthishead。Theyearlyoutputdoesnotusuallyvaryextremelybetweenbriskanddulltimes,exceptasmeasuredinprice。Asmeasuredinmaterialtermsthediscrepancyinthevolumeofoutputbetweenbriskanddulltimesismuchless。Thegrossoutputasmeasuredbyweightandtaleislessindullthaninbrisktimes,otherthingsequal;butthedeficiencyasmeasuredinthesetermsismuchlessthanthepricereturnswouldindicate。Indeed,theoutputasmeasuredbyweightandtaleneednotaverageveryappreciablylessduringaprotracteddepressionthanduringaprecedingperiodofgoodtimes。(29*)Thevolumeofbusinessaswellasthevolumeofoutput(byweightandtale)ofindustrymayincreaseduringafewyearsofdepressionatnearlyifnotquiteashigharateasduringacorrespondingperiodofgoodtimes。Atransitionfromdulltobrisktimes,however,commonlyifnotinvariablyinvolvesarapidincreaseinvalues,whileaconversetransitioninvolvesacorrespondingshrinkageofvalues,thoughcommonlyaslowershrinkage,-exceptwhereacrisisintervenes。

Theprimaryhardshipofaperiodofdepressionisapersistentlesionoftheaffectionsofthebusinessmen;thegreatestsecondaryhardshipiswhatfallsupontheworkmen,inthewayofpartialunemploymentandadeclineinwages,withconsequentprecariousnessandreductionoftheirlivelihood。(30*)

Forthoseworkmenwhocontinuetofindfairlysteadyemploymentduringthedepression,however,evenatreducedwages,thelossismoreapparentthanreal;sincethecheapeningofgoodsoffsetsthedeclineinwages。Indeed,thecheapeningofthemeansoflivingisapttooffsetthefallinwagesfully,forsuchworkmenashavesteadywork。Sothatinthecaseoftheworkmenalso,aswellasinthatofthebusinessmen,thedistresswhichdulltimesbringsisinsomepartaspiritual,emotionalmatter。

Totherestofthecommunity,thoseclassesthatareoutsideofbusinessenterpriseandoutsideoftheindustrialoccupationsproper,thatistosay,those(non-industrial)classeswholiveonafixedsalaryorsimilarfixedincome,dulltimesareathinlydisguisedblessing。Theysufferintheiraffectionsfromth

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