The Theory of Business

第23章

Atsomepointinthesystemofinvestmentandbusinessextensionwillbefoundsomebranchesofindustrywhichhavegraduallylostwhatdifferentialadvantagetheystartedoutwithwhentheyenteredontheeraofprosperity;andiftheseareinvolvedinlargecontractsandundertakingswhicharecarriedoverintothephaseofthemovementatwhichthisparticularbranchofindustryhasceasedtohaveadifferentialadvantageinthepriceofitsoutputoverthecostofitssuppliesofmaterialorlabor,thenwhatmayhavebeenaconservativecapitalizationoftheirholdingsatanearlyphase,whiletheirearning-capacityrestedonalargedifferentialadvantage,willbecomeanexcessivecapitalizationaftertheirearning-capacityhasdeclinedthroughlossoftheirdifferentialadvantage。Somebranchorbranchesandsomefirmsorclassoffirmsnecessarilyfallintothispositioninthecourseofaperiodofphenomenallybrisktimes。Abusinessconcernsoplacednecessarilybecomesadebtor,anditsliabilitiesnecessarilybecome,insomedegree,baddebts。Itisforcedbycircumstancestodeliveritsoutputatpriceswhichprecludeitsobtainingsuchamarginasitsextensionofbusinesspresupposed。Thatistosay,itscapitalizationbecomesexcessivethroughshrinkageofitsearning-capacity(ascountedintermsofprice)。Aconcernofthisclasswhichisadebtorisprecludedfrommeetingitsobligationsoutofitscurrentearnings;andif,ascommonlyhappensinanappreciableproportionofcases,itsobligationshavealreadybeenaugmentedtotheextentwhichitsrecentearning-capacitywouldwarrant,thentheconcernisinsolventforthetimebeing。Iftheclaimsagainstitarepressed,ithasnorecoursehutliquidationthroughforcedsalesorbankruptcy。

Eitherexpedient,ifthecaseisoneofconsiderablemagnitude,isdisastroustothebalancedsequenceofcreditrelationsinwhichthebusinesscommunityisinvolved。Thesystemofcreditrelationsprevailingatsuchatimehasgrownuponthebasisofanearning-capacitytransientlyenhancedbyawaveofdifferentialpriceadvantage;andwhenthiswavehaspassed,evenifitleavespriceshigherallaround,thedifferentialadvantageofatleastmostconcernsispast。Thedifferentialpriceadvantagehascometotheseveralbranchesorfirmsinsuccession,andhas,inthetypicalcase,successivelylefteachwithanexcessivecapitalization,andhasleftmanywithabodyofliabilitiesoutofproportiontotheirsubsequentearning-capacity。Thissituationmay,evidently,comeaboutinthismanner,evenwithoutloweringtheaggregate(pecuniary)

earning-capacityofthebusinesscommunitytothelevelatwhichitstoodbeforethewaveofprosperitysetin。(11*)

Butwhensuchasituationhascome,allthatisrequiredtobringonthegeneralcatastropheisthatsomeconsiderablecreditorfindoutthatthepresentearning-capacityofhisdebtorwillprobablynotwarrantthecapitalizationonwhichhiscollateralisappraised,Inself-defencehemustdeclinetheextensionofaloan,andforcedliquidationmustfollow。Suchaliquidationinvolvescuttingundertherulingpricesofproducts,whichlessenstheprofitsofcompetingfirmsandthrowsthemintotheclassofinsolvents,andsoextendsthereadjustmentofcapitalization。

Thepointofdeparturefortheensuingsequenceofliquidationisnotinfrequentlythefailureofsomebankinghouse,butwhenthisisthecaseitisprettysuretobeabankwhosefundshavebeen“tiedup“in“unwise“loanstoindustrialenterprisesoftheclassspokenofabove。(12*)

Theabruptnessoftherecapitalizationandoftheredistributionofownershipinvolvedinaperiodofliquidationmaybegreatlymitigated,andtheincidenceoftheshrinkageofvaluesmaybemoreequablydistributed,byajudiciousleniencyonthepartofthecreditorsorbyawell-advisedanddiscreetlyweightedextensionofcreditbythegovernmenttocertainsectionsofthebusinesscommunity。Suchmeasuresofalleviationwerehad,withhappyeffect,inthecaseofarecentstringencywhichissometimesspokenofasanavertedcrisis。Butwherethesituationanswersthespecificationsrecitedabove,inrespectofalargeandwidelyprevalentdiscrepancybetweenearning-capacityandcapitalization,adrasticreadjustmentofvaluesisapparentlyunavoidable。

Thepointhasalreadybeenadvertedtoonceortwicethatthemostsubstantialimmediateoutcomeofsuchaliquidationasisinvolvedinacrisisisaredistributionoftheownershipofthepropertyconcernedintheliquidation,wherebycreditorsa

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