The Theory of Business

第22章

Inbrisktimestheuseofcreditislarge;itmaybeasacauseoraneffectoftheaccelerationofbusiness;mostcommonlyitseemstobebothacauseandaneffect。Noappreciablebusinessaccelerationtakesplacewithoutanextensionofcredit,atleastintheformofcontractsofpurchaseandsaleforfutureperformance,ifnotalsointheformofloans。Intimesofprotracteddepressiontheuseofcreditseemsonthewholetobesomewhatrestricted,atleastsuchisthecurrentapprehensionofthecaseamongbusinessmen。Still,itcannotconfidentlybesaidthatseasonsofprotracteddepressionareduesolelytoanabsenceofcreditrelationsortoanunwillingnesstoenterintocreditrelations。Acomparisonofthecourseofinterestrates,e。g。,doesnotwarrantthegeneralizationthatthereadinesswithwhichloanscanbenegotiatedneedbeappreciablydifferentinbriskandindulltimes。(6*)Thereadinesswithwhichcontractsofpurchaseandsalearenegotiatedisappreciablygreaterinbrisktimesthanintimesofdepression;that,indeed,istheobviousdifferencebetweenthetwo。

Ofthethreephasesofbusinessactivity,depression,exaltation,andcrisis,thelastnamedhasclaimedthelargerandlivelierattentionfromstudents,asitisalsothemorepicturesquephenomenon。Anindustrialcrisisisaperiodofliquidation,cancelmentofcredits,highdiscountrates,fallingpricesand“forcedsales,“andshrinkageofvalues。Ithasasasequel,bothsevereandlasting,ashrinkageofcapitalizationthroughoutthefieldaffectedbyit。Itleavesthebusinessmencollectivelypoorer,intermsofmoneyvalue;butthepropertywhichtheyholdbetweenthemmaynotbeappreciablysmallerinpointofphysicalmagnitudeorofmechanicalefficiencythanitwasbeforetheliquidationsetin。Itcommonlyalsoinvolvesanappreciablecurtailmentofindustry,moreseverethanlasting;

buttheeffectswhichacrisishasinindustryproperarecommonlynotcommensuratewithitsconsequencesinbusinessorwiththeimportanceattachedtoacrisisbythebusinesscommunity。Itdoesnotcommonlyinvolveanappreciabledestructionofpropertyoralargewasteofthematerialarticlesofwealth。Itleavesthecommunityatlargepoorerinpointofmarketvalues,butnotnecessarilyintermsofthematerialmeansoflife。Theshrinkageincidenttoacrisisischieflyapecuniary,notamaterial,shrinkage;ittakesplaceprimarilyintheintangibleitemsofwealth,secondarilyinthepriceratingofthetangibleitems。Apartfromsuchreratingofwealth,themostsubstantialimmediateeffectofacrisisisanextensiveredistributionoftheownershipoftheindustrialequipment,asnotedinspeakingoftheuseofcredit。

Theplayofbusinessexigencieswhichleadtosuchaperiodofliquidationseemstorunsomewhatasfollows:Manyfirmshavelargebillspayablefallingdueatneardates,atthesametimethattheyholdbillsreceivablealsoinlargeamounts。Tomeetthedemandoftheircreditorstheycallupontheirdebtors,whomayintheirturnhavebillsreceivableormayholdloansoncollateral。Theinitialmoveinthesequenceofliquidationmaybethecallinginofacallloan,oracallforadditionalcollateralonacallloan。Atsomepoint,earlierorlater,inthesequenceofliabilitiesthedemandfallsupontheholderofaloanoncollateralwhichis,intheapprehensionofhiscreditor,insufficienttosecurereadyliquidation,eitherbyashiftingoftheloanorbyasaleofthecollateral。Thecollateraliscommonlyablockofsecuritiesrepresentingcapitalizedwealth,andtheapprehensionofthecreatormaybeformulatedasadoubtoftheconservativecharacteroftheeffectivecapitalizationonwhichitrests。Inotherwords,thereisanapprehensionthatthepropertyrepresentedbythecollateralisover-capitalized,astestedbythecurrentquotations,orbytheapprehendedfuturequotations,ofthesecuritiesinquestion。Themarketcapitalizationofthecollateralhastakenplaceonthebasisofhighpricesandbrisktradewhichprevailinsuchaperiodofbusinessexaltationasalwaysprecedesanacutecrisis。Whensuchacallcomesuponagivendebtor,thecallispassedalongtothedebtorsfartheralonginthesequenceofliabilities,andthesequenceofliquidationstherebygetsunderway,withtheeffect,notoriousthroughunbrokenexperience,thatthecollateralallalongthelinedeclinesinthemarket。Thecrisisistherebyinaction,andthefurtherconsequencesfollowasawellknownmatterofcourse。Allthisisfamiliarmatter,knowntobusinessmenandstudentsbycommonnotoriety。

Theimmediateoccasionofsuchacrisis,then,isthattherearisesapracticaldiscrepancybetweentheearliereffectivecapitalizationonwhichthecollateralhasbeenacceptedbythecreditors,andthesubsequenteffectivecapitalizationofthesamecollateralshownbyquotationsandsalesofthesecuritieso

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